There is no denying that the Central Asian republic of Turkmenistan is shrouded in mystery and has garnered a reputation as having one of the most repressive regimes in the world. Civil liberties and freedoms are noted more in their absence.
It is a nation which rarely catches the attention of the media given it is flanked by Europe to its West and China to its East. However, this lack of focus misses the geopolitical undercurrents that affect Turkmenistan and the wider central Asian region, in particular, with regard to natural gas pipelines.
If one digs deeper you are soon met with TAPI, an intriguing – and – equally perplexing project that caught my eye. How and why did such a partnership arise – and also – is the project close to delivery? Is it really possible to determine what the state of play is on the ground? It is these questions I am keen to explore further to assess its significance for Turkmenistan.
Background
The foundation of Turkmenistan lie in its nomadic peoples where for most of its history its territory was more akin to a loosely defined geographical region of dispersed tribes. It was not until 1991 that Turkmenistan became an independent nation having been under Soviet rule since the 1920s.
Turkmenistan is also known for its Turkic language which is similar to Turkish with whom they share cultural ties. For instance, many Turkmen watch Turkish television. In addition, over 90% of the Turkmen population adhere to Islam while the remainder are predominately Eastern Orthodox of ethnic Russian origin.
The central Asian nation is ruled with a tight grip and the president has large sway over its economic affairs. Not least, in terms of energy which it has in abundance – most notably – natural gas where it boasts having one of the largest reserves in the world.
The former president, Saparmurat Niyazov and his successor, Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedow have both sought to leverage the nation’s natural resources for economic gain in order to strike deals with a host of larger states in the region who are keen to tap into its supply. In short, energy plays a pivotal role in Turkmenistan.
Tunnel visions and pipe dreams
Gaspolitik – realpolitik – pipeline diplomacy – call it what you will. It lies at the heart of Turkmenistan’s strategy to maximise its influence and bargaining power vis-à-vis Russia, China, Iran, India and Europe. All of whom have secured or are vying for access to its supply.
If one familiarises themselves with the geopolitics of Turkmenistan and the region. What becomes immediately evident is an alphabet soup of pipeline acronyms – completed, in completion or those which are under discussion.
For a quick whistle stop tour there is the Central Asia to China (CAC) pipeline which begins in Turkmenistan to Xinjiang in China; the Central Asia-Centre pipeline that runs from Turkmenistan via Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan to Russia and the Korpeje-Kordkuy and Dauletabad-Sarakhs-Khangiran pipelines between Turkmenistan and Iran.
In addition, the Trans-Caspian pipeline which was proposed in the 1990s. It would originate in the coastal city of Turkmenbashi and run underneath the Caspian Sea to reach Baku in Azerbaijan. The intention is that it will connect with Turkey and finally into Europe. It has been envisaged as a means of circumventing Iran and Russia who at present are transit countries for Turkmen gas and have viewed the proposed pipeline as disruptive to economic prosperity within the region.
However, it is the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline which caught my eye given the lack of transparency surrounding the entire project and the questions on a number of geopolitical fronts it raises. It is where my focus will now turn to assess the strategic motivations for such a partnership and what it means for Turkmenistan and the wider region.
TAPI to you
The historical origins of TAPI can be traced back to the the middle of the 1990s. It arose out of a need to provide an alternative route that would not tie Turkmenistan to Russia who are the time dominated the export control of the natural gas pipelines.
It can thus be viewed from Turkmenistan as a means to reap the economic benefits of their gas reserves whereby they seek to cut themselves free from Russian control and export to new markets, such as Afghanistan, Pakistan and most recently India who joined the TAPI project in 2003.
From the vantage point of Turkmen economic diplomacy and for Afghanistan, Pakistan and India it can be viewed as win-win. One cannot help but questions what were the motivations which brought these four nations together?
For instance, in the case of India and Pakistan who are widely known for their animosity as they continue to be locked into a standoff over the status of Kashmir. Are they able to put aside their differences in order to reap the benefits that the pipeline could bring? Is there not a risk it could fall foul to concerns that may stem from such a partnership?
How will the infrastructured be protected from malign forces who seek to cause disruption to supply whether they are state or non-state actors? For example, the proposed path of the pipeline would see it navigate through volatile provinces of Afghanistan which leave it vulnerable to attack. Similarly, concerns have been raised that Pakistan may wish to hoard supply for their own consumption which will have a direct consequence on India as the final destination of the TAPI pipeline.
State of play
Nevertheless, despite concerns which the TAPI project has raised. What is the state of play for TAPI and when is it due to be completed? A question which appears increasingly difficult to answer on a number of levels. If one looks beyond the positive spin in the media from the leadership of the four respective TAPI partners.
The future outlook looks bleak for TAPI where politics have trumped economics. Although Turkmenistan remains firmly committed to the project – yet – on economic grounds it does not look as appealing for the partners as it did when it first launched. The price of gas is no longer as competitive and the security of the infrastructure, especially in Afghanistan continues to be a concern.
It may never be completed and realities are that TAPI may become a byword for political rhetoric and aspiration rather than a fully functioning pipeline that will deliver energy security for Afghanistan, Pakistan and India. In essence, the resource curse will continue to loom large for the foreseeable future in Turkmenistan that will impede on its ability to diversify its supply.