For an island nation that one would not immediately associate with power play given its small size. However, its location is precisely why it has found itself embroiled in a diplomatic tussle between China and Taiwan.
Kiribati has strategic value and the ability to make friends across its vast oceanic expanse has been eyed from both Asian parties as essential to drive forward their interests. Has the sun set and the allure of the dragon proven too great? Has Kiribati truly pivoted or does the tone reflect a more nuanced view of its partners? It is a shift which I am keen to explore and what it will mean for Kiribati.
Background
Kiribati is located in the central Pacific Ocean which straddles all four hemispheres – the only nation in the entire globe which holds such a title. It draws attention to its sheer scale that encompasses a distance akin to the entire continent of the United States.
As a remote nation formerly ruled under the British until it gained its independence in 1979. It is largely comprised of coral atolls scattered far and wide which are low lying in nature. It illustrates there is no escape from the threats the people face which leaves them at the whim of the sea and at risk of permanent submersion.
Their identity is inextricably tied to their oceanic remoteness which lay at the heart of who they are as exemplified in the national flag – a frigate bird soars above the sun and the waves below. It accentuates the vulnerability that stems from its environmental surroundings caught in perpetual flight or fight mode. In short, it captures the essence of Kiribati as it battles for survival.
For Kiribati it is mission critical to try and maximise their voice in multilateral fora as well as foster ties with allies and partners who can assist them in their efforts to address imminent environmental disaster. Thus, pick your friends wisely and your enemies even more so; a truism that is no more evident than with the diplomatic display from Kiribati with Taiwan and China.
Sun sets and the dragon rises
For Taiwan the Oceanic region has been at the centre of their diplomatic strategy given it is the Pacific Islands who recognise Taiwan in the highest number in comparison to nations in Central America and the Caribbean.
In terms of Kiribati its relationship with Taiwan can summarised as tumultuous. It has been a far cry from total unity across the political spectrum and even among the people at large. The president of the day and oppositional candidates over time has been on either side of the divide: foster relations with Taiwan or jump ship and forge ties with China.
The Taiwan-China split illustrated no more so than with the Tong brothers who have dominated the political scene for decades. For instance, Anote Tong as the younger brother of the two was president of Kiribati over three separate terms where he took office in 2003 and ruled until his retirement in 2016. His tenure was marked by his support for Taiwan and scepticism of China.
On the other side: Harry Tong. His views can best be described as supportive of China throughout his political career which stood him in stark contrast opposition to Anote Tong. Two brothers who symbolise how family and geopolitics are entangled in a region where it can and does have monumental impact on Kiribati. At first glance, one would not be so quick to identify the remote island nation as a key Pacific battleground or having any strategic value to Taiwan – let alone with China – but guess again.
Between the dragon and the deep blue sea
Needless to say with Anote Tong’s departure there has been a distinct change in course for Kiribati upon the election of President Taneti Maamau who from the outset had signalled his support for China most notably on the grounds of developmental assistance and climate change adaption.
From 2016 to date the direction of travel has been towards the arms of the dragon. The climax of which took place in September 2019 when the incumbent president formally announced it will end ties with Taiwan and establish diplomatic relations with China. It was a diplomatic switch that echoed the same steps taken by the Solomon Islands a few days earlier.
The pivot has not been without its critics and the political fallout has seen the President’s governing party lose its majority; a casualty which on the face of its barely needs a mention. However, it would be a mistake to do so and not take note of the party political mood and how the switch is perceived in the eyes of the Kiribati people.
As such, it can be seen as a litmus test which has delivered a political blow that highlights unease felt within Kiribati. It will also no doubt sound the alarm to regional neighbours – Australia and New Zealand as well as to diplomatic watchers the world over who are paying ever increasing attention to China’s role in its own Pacific backyard.
Tale of two halves
The tale of Kiribati has been one of two halves: first comes Taiwan and then comes China. Have the leaders succumbed to the allure of the dragon? In simple terms: its financial might has proven an incentive to sever ties with Taiwan who are unable to match it. It would be an easy assumption to make – money talks after all – yet instincts tell me there is more to it than a monetary calculation and economic growth.
Above all, what has shaped their approach? Survival. The stakes are so high and developmental concerns have moved increasingly to the fore as the remote nation grapples with their island existence. Climate change adaption has been a strategy on offer from China who seek to alleviate their woes. Is it premature to question their altruistic motives that may disguise power projection? Will they be forthcoming and deliver what Kiribati seeks? Only time will tell as the diplomatic dalliance grows and deepens. As with any relationship which rests on such promise: it may be too good to be true.
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